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According
to the Bureau of Labor
Statistics’ (BLS )
establishment survey, non-farm payroll employment increased by 126,000 jobs in March
-- only about half the expected
247,000. Moreover, combined January and February employment gains were revised
downward by 69,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate (based upon the BLS ’s household survey) remained stable at 5.5% -- more a result of individuals dropping out of the workforce (277,000) than
workers finding jobs (34,000).
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Observations
from the employment report include:
* The
disparity in jobs gains between the establishment (+126,000) and household (+34,000)
surveys was noticeable again in March.
* The
downturn in oil-sector (part of the Mining & Logging category) employment continued
in this report.
* Roughly
70% (91,000) of private-sector job growth occurred in the three super-sectors
typically associated with the lowest-paid jobs: Profession & Business
Services; Education & Health Services, and Leisure & Hospitality.
* The
ongoing narrowing in the number of Manufacturing versus Food Service &
Drinking Places (FS&DP) jobs continued in March. Interestingly, in January
2000, there were 9.168 million more U.S. manufacturing jobs than FS&DP
jobs. As of March 2015, the gap has shrunk to 1.302 million. Although the
number of manufacturing jobs was 188,000 higher than March 2014, the concurrent
growth rate in FS&DP jobs was more than double that (+415,100).
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* The
employment-population ratio was stable at 59.3%, but the number of employment-age
persons not in the labor force jumped 277,000 to a new record of 93.2
million.
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* The
labor force participation rate ticked lower by 0.1 percentage point, tying its
multi-decade low of 62.7%. Average hourly earnings of all private employees rose
up by $0.07, resulting in a 2.1% year-over-year increase. For all production
and nonsupervisory employees (pictured above), hourly wages rose $0.04 (+1.8%
YOY). With the CPI running at an official annual rate of 0.0%, wages are
technically rising in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. The amount of time people
worked each week, meanwhile, slipped 0.1 hours to 34.5 hours after hovering at
a post-recession high for months.
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* Finally, full-time jobs increased (+190,000) while part-time
jobs fell (-170,000). Full-time jobs have been trending higher since December
2009, but are still 851,000 short of the pre-recession high. Part-time jobs, by
contrast, have been stuck in a channel between roughly 27 and 28 million.
New York Post columnist John
Crudele is the latest to expose the methodological problems that underlie
the employment reports. Those issues include “rogue” seasonal adjustments that
make the numbers look stronger, to outright lying and
data fabrication. Crudele’s advice: Take the employment report with a “giant
grain of salt” because it is “unreliable to the point of being nearly useless
at best and fraudulent at worst.” Unfortunately, it is the best information
available.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely
for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not
constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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