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Total
housing starts in
November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1.173 million
units (1.141 million expected).
This is 10.5% (±8.6%) above the revised October estimate of 1.062 million
(originally 1.060 million) and 16.5% (±10.3%) above the November 2014 SAAR of
1,007,000.
The
increase was about evenly split on an absolute basis between the single- (+54,000
units) and multi-family (+57,000 units) components. Single-family starts were
at a rate of 768,000, or 7.6% (±9.6%)* above the revised October figure of 714,000.
Multi-family starts were at a rate of 405,000 units, an increase of 16.4%.
* 90% confidence interval (CI) is not
statistically different from zero. The Census Bureau does not publish CIs for
the entire multi-unit category.
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Total
starts were 18.5% above their not-seasonally adjusted year-earlier level (single-family:
+17.4%; multi-family: +20.4%). Year-to-date (YTD) comparisons to 2014 were all
in the 10-12% range.
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Completions
fell by 31,000 units in November, to a SAAR of 947,000. This is 3.2% (±8.7%)* below
the revised October estimate of 978,000 (originally 965,000), but 9.2% (±9.9%)*
above the November 2014 SAAR of 867,000. All of the decline occurred in the
multi-family component (-33,000 or 9.5%), as the single-family component inched
by up 2,000 units (0.3% ±9.7%*) to 632,000. On a not-seasonally adjusted basis,
as shown in the table above, all YoY comparisons were positive; so, too, were YTD
comparisons to 2014.
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Total
permits in November were at a SAAR of 1.289 million units (1.146 million
expected). That was 11.0% (±1.6%) above the revised October rate of 1.161
million (originally 1.150 million) and 19.5% (±2.0%) above the November 2014 SAAR
of 1.079 million. The not-seasonally adjusted YoY comparison was +24.7%; YTD
comparisons to the same months in 2014 were +11.1%.
The
increase in permits was concentrated almost entirely in the multi-family
component (+120,000 units or +26.9%), as single-family authorizations rose up
by only 8,000 units (+1.1% ±0.9%) to a SAAR of 723,000.
The
latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
(HMI) remained relatively flat in December, dropping one point to 61. (An HMI
value above 50 means more builders feel the market is good than feel it is
poor.) “Overall, builders are optimistic about the housing market, although they
are reporting concerns with the high price of lots and labor,” said NAHB
Chairman Tom Woods.
“For
the past seven months, builder confidence levels have averaged in the low 60s,
which is in line with a gradual, consistent recovery,” said NAHB Chief
Economist David Crowe. “With job creation, economic growth and growing
household formations, we anticipate the housing market to continue to pick up
traction as we head into 2016.”
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The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding
any investment.
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