October 2015 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

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Softwood lumber exports rose by 9 MMBF (+7.1%) in October while imports increased by 40 MMBF (+3.2%). Exports were 18 MMBF (12.2%) below year-earlier levels; imports were 123 MMBF (10.5%) higher. The year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 142 MMBF (13.9%) larger. 

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North America was the primary destination for U.S. softwood lumber exports in October (39.3%, of which Mexico: 21.7%; Canada: 17.6%). Asia (especially China: 15.7%) placed second with 31.2%. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China were down 34.6% relative to the same months in 2014. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of nearly all (96.8%) softwood lumber imports into the United States. Overall, YTD exports were down 12.8% compared to 2014, while imports were up 7.7%. 

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U.S. softwood lumber export activity through West Coast customs districts declined in relation to the other districts during October (to 33.3% of the U.S. total, from 36.9% in September); Mobile, AL (19.1%) overtook Seattle, WA (17.8%) as the most active export district. At the same time, Great Lakes customs districts handled 71.9% of the softwood lumber imports (especially Duluth, MN with 32.5%) coming into the United States. 

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Southern yellow pine comprised 33.3% of all softwood lumber exports in October, followed by Douglas-fir with 14.9%. Southern pine exports were up 9.4% YTD relative to 2014, while Douglas-fir exports were down 30.6%.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.