October 2015 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and New & Unfilled Orders

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According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the value of manufactured-goods shipments decreased $2.5 billion or 0.5% to $475.2 billion in October. Shipments of durable goods decreased $2.5 billion or 1.0% to $240.1 billion, led by transportation equipment. Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments increased less than $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $235.1 billion, led by Paper products (1.2%). Shipments of Wood products rose 0.5%. 

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Inventories decreased $0.6 billion or 0.1% to $643.6 billion. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.35, unchanged from September. Inventories of durable goods decreased $1.0 billion or 0.3% to $397.0 billion, led by primary metals. Nondurable goods inventories increased $0.4 billion or 0.2% to $246.5 billion, led by petroleum and coal products. Inventories of Wood expanded by 0.6% while Paper was unchanged. 

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New orders increased $6.8 billion or 1.5% to $473.9 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2% (but -7.7% YoY -- the 12^th consecutive month of year-over-year contractions). Durable goods orders increased $6.8 billion or 2.9% to $238.8 billion, led by transportation equipment. New orders for nondurable goods increased less than $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $235.1 billion. New orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft -- a proxy for business investment spending -- jumped by 1.3% in October (-1.1% YoY).

Prior to July 2014, as can be seen in the graph above, real (inflation-adjusted) new orders had been essentially flat since early 2012, recouping on average 70% of the losses incurred since the beginning of the Great Recession. With July 2014’s transportation-led spike gradually receding in the rearview mirror, new orders are back to 61% of their December 2007 high. 

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Unfilled durable-goods orders increased $3.4 billion or 0.3% to $1,191.8 billion, led by transportation equipment. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.94, up from 6.86 in September. Real unfilled orders, which had been a good litmus test for sector growth, show a much different picture; in real terms, unfilled orders in June 2014 were back to 97% of their December 2008 peak. Real unfilled orders jumped to 122% of the prior peak in July 2014, thanks to the largest-ever batch of aircraft orders, but have since moved mostly sideways and are now on the cusp of falling below the January 2010-to-June 2014 trend line.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.