What is Macro Pulse?

Macro Pulse highlights recent activity and events expected to affect the U.S. economy over the next 24 months. While the review is of the entire U.S. economy its particular focus is on developments affecting the Forest Products industry. Everyone with a stake in any level of the sector can benefit from
Macro Pulse's timely yet in-depth coverage.


Friday, June 17, 2016

May 2016 Residential Permits, Starts and Completions

Click image for larger view 
Click image for larger view
Builders initiated construction of privately-owned housing units at a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate (SAAR) of 1.164 million units in May (1.150 million expected). That was 0.3 percent (±14.0%)* below the revised April estimate of 1.167 million (originally 1.172 million units). The multi-family component led the decline: -5,000 units (-1.2%); single-family starts rose by 2,000 units, to a rate of 764,000; that was 0.3 percent (±13.8%)* above the revised April figure of 762,000 units.
* 90% confidence interval (CI) is not statistically different from zero. The Census Bureau does not publish CIs for the entire multi-unit category. 
Click image for larger view
May’s total SAAR was 9.5 percent (±16.0%)* above the May 2015 rate of 1.063 million; the not-seasonally adjusted YoY change (shown in the table above) was +9.6%. Single-family starts were 10.1% higher YoY, while multi-family component was 8.8% higher. 
Click image for larger view 
Click image for larger view
Total completions rose by 48,000 units, or 5.1 percent (±15.5%)* to 988,000 units. That was 3.5 percent (±13.1%)* below the May 2015 rate of 1.024 million; the NSA comparison: -3.3% YoY.
The MoM increase was concentrated in the multi-family component (+32,000 units, or 13.4%). Single-family housing completions rose by 16,000 units, or 2.3 percent (±14.8%)* to a SAAR of 717,000. Single-family completions were 10.1% above their year-earlier NSA level, while the multi-family component was 27.9% lower
Click image for larger view 
Click image for larger view
Total permits increased by 8,000 units or 0.7 percent (±1.3%)* to 1.138 million units. That SAAR was 10.1 percent (±1.8%)* below the May 2015 estimate of 1.266 million; the NSA comparison was -3.7% YoY.
The MoM rise was limited to the multi-family component (+23,000 units or 5.9%). Single-family permits decreased by 15,000 units or 2.0 percent (±0.9%) to 726,000 units. On a YoY basis, single-family permits were 10.1% higher, but multi-family units were 21.6% lower; multi-family permits were also 13.0% lower YTD through May than the same months in 2015. 
Click image for larger view
After holding steady for the past four months, builder confidence in the market for newly constructed single-family homes rose two points in June to a level of 60 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the highest reading since January 2016.
“Builders in many markets across the nation are reporting higher traffic and more committed buyers at their job sites,” said NAHB Chairman Ed Brady. “However, our members are also relating ongoing concerns regarding the shortage of buildable lots and labor and noting pockets of softness in scattered markets.”
“Rising home sales, an improving economy and the fact that the HMI gauge measuring future sales expectations is running at an eight-month high are all positive factors indicating that the housing market should continue to move forward in the second half of 2016,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.