August 2016 International Trade (General)

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The goods and services deficit was $40.7 billion in August, up $1.2 billion from $39.5 billion in July, revised.  August exports were $187.9 billion, $1.5 billion more than July exports. August imports were $228.6 billion, $2.6 billion more than July imports.

The August increase in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of less than $0.1 billion to $60.3 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $1.2 billion to $19.6 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $4.3 billion, or 1.3 percent, from the same period in 2015. Exports decreased $62.4 billion or 4.1 percent. Imports decreased $66.8 billion or 3.6 percent.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas

The August figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Hong Kong ($2.4), South and Central America ($1.7), Saudi Arabia ($0.8), Singapore ($0.7), United Kingdom ($0.4), and Brazil ($0.2). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($29.2), European Union ($12.3), Japan ($5.7), Germany ($5.3), Mexico ($5.2), South Korea ($2.5), Italy ($2.4), France ($2.0), India ($1.9), Taiwan ($1.5), Canada ($1.1), and OPEC ($0.3).

* The surplus with Hong Kong increased $0.4 billion to $2.4 billion in August. Exports increased $0.4 billion to $3.0 billion and imports increased less than $0.1 billion to $0.7 billion.

* The balance with Saudi Arabia shifted from a deficit of $0.2 billion to a surplus of $0.8 billion in August. Exports increased $1.3 billion to $2.5 billion and imports increased $0.4 billion to $1.7 billion.

* The deficit with France increased $1.0 billion to $2.0 billion in August. Exports decreased $0.6 billion to $2.3 billion and imports increased $0.4 billion to $4.3 billion. 

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On a global scale, data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis showed that world trade volume decreased 1.1% in July (-0.9% year-over-year) while prices fell by 1.0% (-4.1% YoY). July’s price index was 21.4% below the August 2011 peak; price index changes are almost perfectly (but inversely) correlated with changes in the value of the U.S. dollar.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.