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Builders
started construction of privately-owned housing units in
September at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1.047 million units
(1.180 million expected).
That was 9.0 percent (±9.2%)* below the revised August estimate of 1.150 (originally
1.142 million). The multi-family component led the decrease: -162,000 units
(-38.0%), to 264,000 units. Single-family starts, by contrast, jumped by 59,000
units, or +8.1 percent (±7.4%), to 783,000 units.
* 90% confidence interval (CI) is not
statistically different from zero. The Census Bureau does not publish CIs for
the entire multi-unit category.
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September’s
total SAAR was 11.9 percent (±11.9%) below the September 2015 SAAR of 1.189
million units; the not-seasonally adjusted YoY change (shown in the table
above) was -15.1%. Single-family starts were 4.6% higher YoY, and the
multi-family component was -42.5%.
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Total
completions fell by 87,000 units, or -8.4 percent (±10.3%)*, to a SAAR of 951,000
units. That was 5.8 percent (±13.4%)* below the September 2015 SAAR of 1.010
million; the NSA comparison: -6.5% YoY.
Single-family
completions retreated by 66,000 units, or -8.8 percent (±9.8%)*, to 687,000
units -- but still +5.9% YoY. Multi-family completions dropped by 21,000 units
(-7.4% MoM, and -27.2% YoY).
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Total
permits rose by 73,000 units, or 6.3 percent (±1.9%), to 1.225 million (1.165
million expected). That was 8.5 percent (±2.4%) above the September 2015 SAAR
of 1.129 million; the non-seasonally adjusted YoY comparison was +8.9%.
Single-family
authorizations edged up by 3,000 units, or +0.4 percent (±1.6%)*, to 739,000;
multi-family permits jumped by 70,000 units (+16.8%) to 486,000. Single-family
permits were 18.2% higher YoY; multi-family: -6.1% YoY.
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Builder
confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes in September dropped
two points (to 63) on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
(HMI).
“Even
with this month’s drop, builder confidence stands at its second-highest level
in 2016, a sign that the housing recovery continues to make solid progress,”
said NAHB Chairman Ed Brady. “However, builders in many markets continue to
express concerns about shortages of lots and labor.”
“The
October reading represents a mild pullback from a jump in September, and
indicates that the housing market continues to make slow and steady gains,”
said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Moreover, mortgage rates remain low
and the HMI index measuring future sales expectations has been over 70 for the
past two months. These factors will sustain continued growth in the
single-family market in the months ahead.”
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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