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Macro Pulse highlights recent activity and events expected to affect the U.S. economy over the next 24 months. While the review is of the entire U.S. economy its particular focus is on developments affecting the Forest Products industry. Everyone with a stake in any level of the sector can benefit from
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Saturday, January 7, 2017

November 2016 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

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Softwood lumber exports decreased (3 MMBF or -2.3%) in November, while imports declined (96 MMBF or -6.9%). Exports were 12 MMBF (+9.9%) above year-earlier levels; imports were 33 MMBF (-2.5%) lower. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 46 MMBF (-3.8%) smaller. The average net export deficit for the 12 months ending November 2016 was 26.7% higher than the average of the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the graph above). 
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North America was the primary destination for U.S. softwood lumber exports in November (39.5%, of which Canada: 20.7%; Mexico: 18.8%). Asia (especially China: 20.8%) ranked second, with 36.8%. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China were up 19.4% relative to the same months in 2015. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of nearly all (95.3%) softwood lumber imports into the United States; Imports from Canada are 24.1% higher YTD than the same months in 2015. Overall, YTD exports were down 21.5% compared to 2015, while imports were up 25.0%. 
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U.S. softwood lumber export activity through West Coast customs districts represented the largest proportion in September (35.9% of the U.S. total), the Eastern and Gulf districts lagged (33.3% and 22.2%, respectively); Seattle maintained its dominance as the most active export district (22.4% of the U.S. total). At the same time, Great Lakes customs districts handled 66.2% of softwood lumber imports -- most notably Duluth, MN (29.6%) -- coming into the United States. 
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Southern yellow pine comprised 30.8% of all softwood lumber exports in November, followed by Douglas-fir with 14.6%. Southern pine exports were up 11.4% YTD relative to 2015, while Doug-fir exports were down 18.0%.
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

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