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Softwood
lumber exports decreased (13 MMBF or -9.7%) in December, while imports declined
(38 MMBF or -2.9%). Exports were 2 MMBF (-1.2%) below year-earlier levels; imports were 77 MMBF (+6.5%) higher. As a
result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 79 MMBF (+7.4%) larger.
The average net export deficit for the 12 months ending December 2016 was 26.1%
higher than the average of the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) %
Chng” series shown in the graph above).
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North
America was the primary destination for U.S. softwood lumber exports in December
(38.3%, of which Mexico: 20.1%; Canada: 18.2%). Asia (especially China: 19.5%) ranked
second, with 35.4%. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China were up 16.8% relative
to the same months in 2015. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of nearly all (95.0%)
softwood lumber imports into the United States; Imports from Canada are 22.5%
higher YTD than the same months in 2015. Overall, YTD exports were down 2.8%
compared to 2015, while imports were up 23.4%.
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U.S.
softwood lumber export activity through West Coast customs districts represented
the largest proportion in December (35.0% of the U.S. total), the Eastern and Gulf
districts lagged (30.1% and 27.6%, respectively); Seattle maintained its dominance
as the most active export district (20.3% of the U.S. total). At the same time,
Great Lakes customs districts handled 65.4% of softwood lumber imports -- most
notably Duluth, MN (28.3%) -- coming into the United States.
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Southern
yellow pine comprised 33.9% of all softwood lumber exports in December,
followed by Douglas-fir with 12.8%. Southern pine exports were up 12.9% YTD relative
to 2015, while Doug-fir exports were down 20.2%.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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