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Builders
started construction of privately-owned housing units in
January at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1.246 million units (1.232
million expected).
This is 2.6 percent (±11.0%)* below the revised December estimate of 1.279 million
(originally 1.226 million), but 10.5 percent (±15.3%)* above the January 2016 SAAR
of 1.128 million; the not-seasonally adjusted YoY change (shown in the table
above) was +11.0%.
* 90% confidence interval (CI) is not
statistically different from zero. The Census Bureau does not publish CIs for
the entire multi-unit category.
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The
multi-family segment led the MoM decrease: -48,000 units (-10.2%), to 423,000
units. Single-family rose by 15,000 units, or +1.9 percent (±10.8%)* to 823,000
units.
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Total
housing completions in January declined by 62,000 units, or -5.6 percent (±8.0%)*
to 1.047 million units. That is 0.9 percent (±15.0%)* below the January 2016 SAAR
of 1.056 million; the NSA comparison: -0.6% YoY.
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Single-family
housing completions rose by 33,000 units, or +4.3 percent (±7.5%)* to 800,000
units. Multi-family completions tumbled by 95,000 units, or -27.8%, to 247,000
units.
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Total
permits rose by 57,000 units, or +4.6 percent (±2.0%) to 1.285 million units
(1.233 million expected). That is 8.2 percent (±1.6%) above the January 2016 SAAR
of 1.188 million; the non-seasonally adjusted YoY comparison was +16.0%.
Single-family
fell by 22,000 units, or -2.7 percent (±1.9%) to 808,000 units. Multi-family
permits: +79,000 units, or +19.8%, to 477,000 units.
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Builder
confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes declined two
points in February to a level of 65 on the National Association of Home
Builders/Wells Fargo Housing
Market Index (HMI).
“While
builders remain optimistic, we are seeing the numbers settling back into a
normal range,” said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald. “Regulatory burdens remain
a major challenge to our industry, and NAHB looks forward to working with the
new Congress and administration to help alleviate some of the pressures that
are holding small businesses back and making homes less affordable.”
“With
much of the decline this month resulting from a decrease in buyer traffic,
builders continue to struggle to minimize costs while dealing with supply side
challenges such as a lack of developed lots and labor shortages,” said NAHB
Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Despite these constraints, the overall housing
market fundamentals remain strong and we expect to see continued growth this
year as some of these concerns are addressed.”
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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