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Softwood
lumber exports retreated (8 MMBF or -5.4%) in January, while imports fell (99 MMBF
or -8.0%). Exports were 6 MMBF (+4.6%) above year-earlier levels; imports were 160
MMBF (-12.2%) lower. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit
was 166 MMBF (14.1%) smaller. Moreover, the average net export deficit for the
12 months ending January 2018 was 11.6% smaller than the average of the same
months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the graph above).
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Asia
(especially China: 23.6%) and North America (of which Canada: 21.1%; Mexico: 17.2%)
were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports in December; the
Caribbean ranked third with a 19.4% share. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China
were +22.9% relative to the same months in 2016. Meanwhile, Canada was the source
of most (88.5%) of softwood lumber imports into the United States. Imports from
Canada are 16.5% lower YTD than the same months in 2017. Overall, YTD exports
were up 4.6% compared to 2017, while imports were down 12.2%.
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U.S.
softwood lumber export activity through the Eastern customs region represented
the largest proportion in January (39.7% of the U.S. total), followed by the West
Coast (29.0%) and the Gulf (21.9%) regions. However, Seattle regained its lead
(16.9% of the U.S. total) over Savannah (14.8%) as the single most-active district.
At the same time, Great Lakes customs region handled 61.2% of softwood lumber
imports -- most notably the Duluth, MN district (27.4%) -- coming into the
United States.
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Southern
yellow pine comprised 33.9% of all softwood lumber exports in January, Douglas-fir
(12.1%) and treated lumber (14.2%). Southern pine exports were up 14.8% YTD relative
to 2017, while treated: -5.9%; Doug-fir: +10.5%.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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