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Softwood
lumber exports decreased (7 MMBF or -6.3%) in August; imports rose (88 MMBF or +7.8%).
Exports were 34 MMBF (-23.9%) below year-earlier levels; imports were 128 MMBF (-9.5%)
lower. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 94 MMBF (-7.8%)
smaller. Also, the average net export deficit for the 12 months ending August
2019 was 3.9% smaller than the average of the same months a year earlier (the
“YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the graph above).
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North
America (42.8%; of which Canada: 21.8%; Mexico: 20.9%) and Asia (30.4%; especially
China: 8.4%; and Japan: 7.9%) were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood
lumber exports; the Caribbean ranked third with a 19.9% share. Year-to-date
(YTD) exports to China were -62.9% relative to the same months in 2018. Meanwhile,
Canada was the source of most (91.1%) of softwood lumber imports into the
United States. Imports from Canada were 4.8% lower YTD than the same months in
2018. Overall, YTD exports were down 23.7% compared to 2018; imports: -4.6%.
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U.S.
softwood lumber export activity through the West Coast customs region represented
the largest proportion (34.9% of the U.S. total), followed by the Gulf (30.2%) and
Eastern (26.7%) regions. Seattle (20.7% of the U.S. total) maintained the lead over
Mobile (19.9%) as the single most-active district. At the same time, Great
Lakes customs region handled 64.6% of softwood lumber imports -- most notably the
Duluth, MN district (22.4%) -- coming into the United States.
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Southern
yellow pine comprised 26.1% of all softwood lumber exports, Douglas-fir (15.7%)
and treated lumber (11.7%) were also significant. Southern pine exports were down
38.9% YTD relative to 2018, while treated: -24.8%; Doug-fir: -7.2%.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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