September 2019 Residential Permits, Starts and Completions

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Builders started construction of privately-owned housing units in September at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,256,000 units (1.300 million expected). This is 9.4% (±9.4%)* below the revised August estimate of 1,386,000 (originally 1.364 million units), but 1.6% (±11.6%)* above the September 2018 SAAR of 1,236,000 units; the not-seasonally adjusted YoY change (shown in the table above) was +2.9%.

Single-family housing starts were at a SAAR of 918,000; this is 0.3% (±9.3%)* above the revised August figure of 915,000 (+7.6% YoY). Multi-family starts: 338,000 units (-28.2% MoM; -7.2% YoY).

* 90% confidence interval (CI) is not statistically different from zero. The Census Bureau does not publish CIs for the entire multi-unit category. 

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Total completions were at a SAAR of 1,139,000 units. This is 9.7% (±9.2%) below the revised August estimate of 1,262,000 (originally 1.294 million units) and 1.0% (±9.9%)* below the September 2018 SAAR of 1,150,000 units; the NSA comparison: -3.8% YoY.

Single-family completions were at a rate of 852,000; this is 8.6% (±9.3%)* below the revised August rate of 932,000 (-0.6% YoY). Multi-family completions: 287,000 units (-13.0% MoM; -12.1% YoY). 

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Total permits amounted to a SAAR of 1,387,000 units (1.335 million expected). This is 2.7% (±1.3%) below the revised August rate of 1,425,000 (originally 1.419 million units), but is 7.7% (±2.4%) above the September 2018 SAAR of 1,288,000 units; the NSA comparison: +13.8% YoY.

Single-family permits were at a SAAR of 882,000; this is 0.8% (±0.8%)* above the revised August figure of 875,000 (+8.4% YoY). Multi-family: 505,000 (-8.2% MoM; +23.8% YoY). 

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Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose three points to 71 in October, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Sentiment levels are at their highest point since February 2018.

“The housing rebound that began in the spring continues, supported by low mortgage rates, solid job growth and a reduction in new home inventory,” said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde.

“The second half of 2019 has seen steady gains in single-family construction, and this is mirrored by the gradual uptick in builder sentiment over the past few months,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “However, builders continue to remain cautious due to ongoing supply side constraints and concerns about a slowing economy.”

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.