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Macro Pulse highlights recent activity and events expected to affect the U.S. economy over the next 24 months. While the review is of the entire U.S. economy its particular focus is on developments affecting the Forest Products industry. Everyone with a stake in any level of the sector can benefit from
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Friday, April 8, 2022

February 2022 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

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Softwood lumber exports edged up (9 MMBF or +9.0%) in February, along with imports (134 MMBF or +12.5%). Exports were 18 MMBF (19.6%) above year-earlier levels; imports were 66 MMBF (5.8%) higher. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 48 MMBF (4.6%) larger. Also, the average net export deficit for the 12 months ending February 2022 was 0.7% lower than the average of the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the graph above).

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North America (55.4% of total exports; of which Mexico: 26.2%; Canada: 25.3%), Asia (22.4%; especially Japan: 10.7%; and Pakistan: 3.8%), and the Caribbean: 20.9% especially the Dominican Republic: 3.8%) were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China (2.9% of U.S. total) were -53.0% relative to the same month of the prior year. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of most (82.0%) softwood lumber imports into the United States. Imports from Canada were 10.7% lower YTD/YTD. Overall, YTD exports were up 12.7% compared to the prior year; imports: -6.6%.

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U.S. softwood lumber export activity through the West Coast customs region represented 40.2% of the U.S. total; Gulf: 29.7%, and Eastern: 21.2%. Seattle (20.4% of the U.S. total), Mobile (14.7%), San Diego (11.6%) and Laredo (8.5%) were among the most active districts. At the same time, Great Lakes customs region handled 54.7% of softwood lumber imports -- most notably the Duluth, MN district (20.3%) -- coming into the United States. 

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Southern yellow pine comprised 15.8% of all softwood lumber exports; Douglas-fir (18.5%), treated lumber (16.0%), other pine (9.7%) and finger-jointed (9.9%) were also significant. Southern pine exports were down 20.0% YTD/YTD, while Doug-fir: +28.6%; and treated: +35.0%.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

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