Sales of new
single-family houses in March 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate
(SAAR) of 763,000 units (772,000 expected). This
is 8.6% (±12.9%)* below the revised February rate of 835,000 (originally 772,000
units) and 12.6% (±11.3%) below the March 2021 SAAR of 873,000 units; the
not-seasonally adjusted (NSA) year-over-year comparison (shown in the table
above) was -13.3%. For longer-term perspectives, NSA sales were 45.1% below the
“housing bubble” peak but 37.7% above the long-term, pre-2000 average.
The
median sales price of new houses sold in March 2022 jumped by 3.6% (+$15,100),
to a new record of $436,700. The average
sales price rose by 3.1% (+$15,800), to a record-high $523,900. Homes priced
at/above $750,000 were 11.1% of sales, up from the year-earlier 6.0%.
* 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
As
mentioned in our post about
housing permits, starts and completions in March, single-unit completions declined
by 58,000 units (-6.4%). Sales retreated (72,000 units; -8.6%), resulting in inventory
for sale expanding in both absolute (15,000 units) and months-of-inventory (+0.8
month) terms.
Existing home sales tumbled in March (470,000 units or -2.7%) to a SAAR of 5.77 million units (5.86 million expected). Inventory of existing homes for sale expanded in absolute (+100,000 units) and months-of-inventory (+0.3 month) terms. Because new home sales retreated by a larger margin than resales, the share of total sales comprised of new homes fell to 11.7%. The median price of previously owned homes sold in March advanced to a record $375,300 ($16,000 or +4.5% MoM).
Housing affordability dropped (7.7 index points) as the median price of
existing homes for sale in February rose by $7,100 (+2.0% MoM; +15.5 YoY), to $363,800.
Concurrently, Standard & Poor’s reported that the U.S. National Index in the S&P Case-Shiller
CoreLogic Home Price indices rose at a not-seasonally adjusted monthly change
of +1.7% (+19.8% YoY).
“U.S.
home prices continued to advance at a very rapid pace in February,” said Craig Lazzara,
Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index recorded a gain
of 19.8% for the 12 months ended February 2022; the 10- and 20-City Composites
rose 18.6% and 20.2%, respectively. All three composites reflect an
acceleration of price growth relative to January’s level.
“The
National Composite’s 19.8% year-over-year change for February was the
third-highest reading in 35 years of history. That level of price growth
suggests broad strength in the housing market, which is exactly what we
continue to observe. All 20 cities saw double-digit price increases for the 12
months ended in February, and price growth in all 20 cities accelerated
relative to January’s report. February’s price increase ranked in the top
quartile of historical experience for every city, and in the top decile for 18
of them.
“Phoenix’s
32.9% price increase led all cities for the 33rd consecutive month, with Tampa
(+32.6%) and Miami (+29.7%) close behind. Prices were strongest in the South
(+28.1%) and Southeast (+27.9%), but every region continued to show impressive
gains.
“The macroeconomic environment is evolving rapidly and may not support extraordinary home price growth for much longer. The post-COVID resumption of general economic activity has stoked inflation, and the Federal Reserve has begun to increase interest rates in response. We may soon begin to see the impact of increasing mortgage rates on home prices.”
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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