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Macro Pulse highlights recent activity and events expected to affect the U.S. economy over the next 24 months. While the review is of the entire U.S. economy its particular focus is on developments affecting the Forest Products industry. Everyone with a stake in any level of the sector can benefit from
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Wednesday, April 13, 2022

March 2022 Consumer and Producer Price Indices (incl. Forest Products)

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Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.2% in March (+1.1% expected) after rising 0.8% in February. Increases in the indexes for gasoline, shelter, and food were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all-items increase. The gasoline index rose 18.3% in March and accounted for over half of the all-items monthly increase; other energy component indexes also increased. The food index rose 1.0% and the food at home index rose 1.5%.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3% in March following a 0.5% increase the prior month. The shelter index was by far the biggest factor in the increase, with a broad set of other indexes also contributing, including those for airline fares, household furnishings and operations, medical care, and motor vehicle insurance. In contrast, the index for used cars and trucks fell 3.8% over the month.

The all-items index continued to accelerate, rising 8.5% for the 12 months ending March, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending December 1981. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.5%, the largest 12-month change since the period ending August 1982. The energy index rose 32.0% over the last year, and the food index increased 8.8%, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending May 1981.

Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4% in March (+1.1% expected). This rise followed advances of 0.9% in February and 1.2% in January. On an unadjusted basis, final demand prices moved up 11.2% for the 12 months ended in March, the largest increase since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.

In March, the rise in the index for final demand was led by a 2.3% advance in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand services increased 0.9%.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.9% in March, the largest advance since rising 1.0% in January 2021. For the 12 months ended in March, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 7.0%.

Final Demand

Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods rose 2.3% in March, the same as in February. Over half of the broad-based advance in March can be traced to a 5.7% jump in prices for final demand energy. The indexes for final demand goods less foods and energy and for final demand foods also moved higher, 1.1% and 2.4%, respectively.

Product detail: Leading the March increase in the index for final demand goods, diesel fuel prices jumped 20.4%. The indexes for gasoline, fresh and dry vegetables, jet fuel, iron and steel scrap, and electric power also moved higher. In contrast, prices for beef and veal fell 7.3%. The indexes for natural gas and for cold rolled steel sheet and strip also declined.

Final demand services: Prices for final demand services moved up 0.9% in March following a 0.3% increase in February. Over 40% of the March advance can be traced to a 1.2% rise in margins for final demand trade services. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services and for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing also moved higher, climbing 5.5% and 0.3%, respectively.

Product detail: A 22.7% jump in margins for fuels and lubricants retailing was a major factor in the March advance in prices for final demand services. The indexes for truck transportation of freight; traveler accommodation services; airline passenger services; inpatient care; and hardware, building materials, and supplies retailing also increased. Conversely, prices for securities brokerage, dealing, and investment advice decreased 5.4%. The indexes for portfolio management and for automobile retailing (partial) also moved lower.

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The not-seasonally adjusted price indexes we track all advanced on both a MoM and YoY basis.

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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

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