November 2022 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

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With November exports of goods and services at $251.9 billion (-2.0% MoM; +10.4% YoY) and imports at $313.4 billion (-6.4% MoM; +2.4% YoY), the net trade deficit was $61.5 billion (-21.0% MoM; -21.1% YoY). 

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Softwood lumber exports fell (6 MMBF or +5.4%) in November, along with imports (99 MMBF or -7.5%). Exports were 29 MMBF (-22.3%) below year-earlier levels; imports: 50 MMBF (-3.9%) lower. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 21 MMBF (-1.8%) smaller. Also, the average net export deficit for the 12 months ending November 2022 was 3.2% below the average of the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the lumber-trade graph above).

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North America (58.8% of total softwood lumber exports; of which Mexico: 35.2%; Canada: 23.6%), Asia (9.3%; especially Japan: 2.3%), and the Caribbean: 24.9% especially the Dominican Republic: 8.6%) were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports in November. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China (2.2% of U.S. total) were -61.5% relative to the same month of the prior year. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of most (79.2%) softwood lumber imports into the United States. Imports from Canada were 6.0% lower YTD/YTD. Overall, YTD exports were down 7.9% compared to the prior year; imports: -2.5%.

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U.S. softwood lumber export activity through the West Coast customs region represented 33.8% of the U.S. total; Gulf: 39.0%, and Eastern: 18.1%. Seattle (14.3% of the U.S. total), Mobile (20.1%), San Diego (16.1%) and Laredo (13.2%) were the most active districts. At the same time, the Great Lakes customs region handled 55.7% of softwood lumber imports -- most notably the Duluth, MN district (17.3%) -- coming into the United States. 

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Southern yellow pine comprised 23.6% of all softwood lumber exports; Douglas-fir (12.3%), treated lumber (18.3%), other pine (9.5%) and finger-jointed (7.5%) were also significant. Southern pine exports were down 18.7% YTD/YTD, while Doug-fir: +4.0%; treated: +12.2%; other pine: (-16.9%); and finger-jointed: -14.9%.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.