April 2013 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and New & Unfilled Orders

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According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the value of manufactured-goods shipments decreased $3.5 billion (0.7 percent) to $478.7 billion in April. Durable goods shipments, decreased $1.0 billion (0.4 percent) to $227.4 billion, led by computers and electronic products, down three of the last four months, led the decrease, down $0.8 billion or 3.0 percent to $27.6 billion.

Shipments of nondurable goods decreased $2.6 billion (1.0 percent) to $251.3 billion, led by petroleum and coal products. Wood shipments retreated by 0.3 percent, but Paper increased by 0.2 percent. 

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Data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR) and the American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) advance seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index help round out the picture on goods shipments. AAR reported a 0.8 percent decrease in not-seasonally adjusted rail shipments in April (relative to March), and a 0.4 percent drop from a year earlier; on a trend-line basis, total shipments were off 2.6 percent from a year earlier. Excluding coal carloads, year-over-year shipments were down 0.2 percent. Seasonal adjustments accentuated the 0.8 percent March-to-April decrease, expanding it to a 1.2 percent decrease. Rail shipments of forest-related products were lower in April than a year earlier, thanks largely to a 52.5 percent drop in lumber and wood products shipments. The ATA’s advance index showed a 0.2 percent contraction in April. 

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Inventories increased $1.1 billion (0.2 percent) to $627.9 billion, the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.31.

Durable goods inventories increased $1.3 billion (0.3 percent) to $377.8 billion (also the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis), led by transportation equipment. Inventories of nondurable goods decreased $0.2 billion (0.1 percent) to $250.1 billion, led by petroleum and coal products down $1.1 billion (2.3 percent) to $46.6 billion.

Forest products inventories rose by 1.7 (Wood) and 0.2 (Paper) percent. 

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New orders increased $4.9 billion (1.0 percent) to $474.0 billion; excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1 percent. Durable goods orders increased $7.4 billion (3.5 percent) to $222.7 billion, led by transportation equipment. New orders for nondurable goods decreased $2.6 billion (1.0 percent) to $251.3 billion. 

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Unfilled orders increased $2.6 billion (0.3 percent) to $995.9 billion; the unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.26, up from 6.21 in March. Durable goods increased $2.6 billion (0.3 percent) to $995.9 billion, led by computers and electronic products. Real (i.e., inflation adjusted) unfilled orders, a good litmus test for sector growth, appear to be sputtering after regaining only about half the ground given up during the Great Recession.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.