May 2013 Consumer and Producer Price Indices (incl. Forest Products)

Click image for larger version

The seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in May. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4 percent before seasonal adjustment. The shelter index rose 0.3 percent and accounted for more than half of the seasonally adjusted all items increase in May. The energy index rose modestly, with the gasoline index flat but increases in the electricity and natural gas indexes accounting for the rise. The food index, however, turned down in May, with the food at home index falling 0.3 percent.

The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index for finished goods (PPI) rose 0.5 percent in May. Prices for finished goods fell 0.7 percent in April and 0.6 percent in March. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods declined 0.1 percent in May, and the crude goods index advanced 2.2 percent. On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods moved up 1.7 percent for the 12 months ended May 2013. 

Click image for larger version

Forest products-related price indices appear to be in the process of “topping out” or are in decline. Pulp, Paper & Allied Products ticked up by just 0.1 percent between April and May. Wood Fiber costs were flat in May, while Lumber & Wood Products and Softwood Lumber both dropped (the latter quite significantly). 

Click image for larger version

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.