Click image
for larger view
Click image
for larger view
Overall
construction
spending in the United States SAAR )
of $860.8 billion, thanks entirely to a 2.2 percent increase in private
residential spending; all other categories declined.
Click image
for larger view
Total
housing starts retreated
from March’s breach of the one million unit mark (SAAR ),
mainly on weakness in the multi-family component. Single-family starts dropped
by a modest 13,000 units (2.1 percent) to 610,000 units, whereas the fallback in
multi-family starts (-155,000 units, or 38.9 percent, to 243,000 units) was the
largest month-to-month plunge since 2006.
Click image
for larger view
Click image
for larger view
Click image
for larger view
April’s
fallback in starts wasn’t the fault of questionable seasonal adjustments, as
non-seasonally adjusted estimates (except for single-family starts) also declined.
Total starts were up less than 15 percent over year-earlier levels.
Click image
for larger view
Sales
of new single-family homes advanced by 10,000 units (2.3 percent) to 454,000 (SAAR ).
The median price of new homes sold jumped by $20,900 (8.3 percent), to a new
all-time record high of $271,600. With sales advancing in the face of
retreating starts, the three-month average starts-to-sales ratio retreated to
1.42 in April.
Click image
for larger view
Single-unit
completions followed starts lower (by -58,000 units or 9.8 percent), while the
inventory of new single-family homes ticked higher in absolute terms (+5,000
units) but months-of-sales remained stable at 4.1 months.
Click image
for larger view
Existing home sales
nudged higher (+30,000 units or 0.6 percent, SAAR )
to 4.97 million units in April; even so, the share of total sales comprised of
new homes ticked up to 8.4 percent. The median price of previously owned homes
sold in April pushed upward (by $8,900 or 4.8 percent), to $192,800 the highest price since September 2008.
Click image
for larger view
The
continued rise in the median price of existing homes for sale ($11,600 or 6.7
percent in March) is adversely impacting housing
affordability. Concurrently, Standard & Poor’s
reported that the 10- and 20-City Composites in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home
Price indices both posted monthly gains of 1.4 percent from February to March (10.3
and 10.9 percent, respectively, relative to a year earlier).
Click image
for larger view
Click image
for larger view
With
builders’ confidence
in the residential market rising, the number of permits applied for soared in April.
Total permits jumped to nearly 1.02 million units (+127,000 units or 14.3
percent). The rise resulted primarily because of strength in the multi-family component
(+109,000 units or 37.5 percent, to 400,000 units); single-family units also rose
by a more modest 18,000 units (3.0 percent), to 617,000 units. Total permits
were nearly 36 percent higher in April than a year earlier.
Click image
for larger view
Although
the housing market “weather” has been “mostly sunny to partly cloudy” during
recent months, some storm clouds appear to be building on the horizon. For
example,
- Architectural billings plunged over the past two months by the most since November 2008; the current level of activity is at its lowest since June 2012.
- Random Lengths’ framing lumber composite price has slumped by over 20 percent during the current quarter (other indices put the decline at 28 percent).
- Wells Fargo, JPMorgan-Chase and Citi have all but halted foreclosures. The reason given for this development was to “ensure late-stage foreclosure procedures were in accordance with guidelines,” but the decision coincided with a report that the length of time required to sell foreclosed homes has hit a record high of nearly 400 days.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors,
and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and
discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding
any investment.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.