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Softwood
lumber exports decreased (-2 MMBF or 1.2%) in September, while imports declined
(-38 MMBF or 2.8%). Exports were 11 MMBF (9.1%) above year-earlier levels; imports were 80 MMBF (6.4%) higher. As a
result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 69 MMBF (6.1%) larger.
The average net export deficit for the 12 months ending September 2016 was 31.4%
higher than the average of the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) %
Chng” series shown in the graph above).
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North
America was the primary destination for U.S. softwood lumber exports in September
(42.6%, of which Mexico: 21.9%; Canada: 20.7%). Asia (especially China: 20.4%) ranked
second, with 35.5%. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China were up 16.7% relative
to the same months in 2015. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of nearly all (95.9%)
softwood lumber imports into the United States. Overall, YTD exports were up 2.1%
compared to 2015, while imports were up 30.9%.
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U.S.
softwood lumber export activity through West Coast customs districts represented
the largest proportion in September (34.9% of the U.S. total), although the Eastern
and Gulf districts were not far behind (30.4% and 27.1%, respectively); Seattle
maintained its dominance as the most active export district (21.9% of the U.S.
total). At the same time, Great Lakes customs districts handled 65.1% of the
softwood lumber imports -- most notably Duluth, MN (28.1%) -- coming into the
United States.
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Southern
yellow pine comprised 32.0% of all softwood lumber exports in September,
followed by Douglas-fir with 12.9%. Southern pine exports were up 13.3% YTD relative
to 2015, while Doug-fir exports were down 17.2%.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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