Click image
for larger view
Click image
for larger view
According
to the U.S.
Census Bureau, the value of manufactured-goods shipments increased $3.9
billion or 0.8% to $463.0 billion in September. Shipments of durable goods increased
$1.8 billion or 0.8% to $234.3 billion, led by transportation equipment.
Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments increased $2.1 billion or 0.9% to $228.7
billion, led by petroleum and coal products. Shipments of Wood and Paper rose,
respectively, 0.9% and 0.6%.
Click image
for larger view
Inventories
decreased $0.2 billion or virtually unchanged to $621.4 billion. The
inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.34, down from 1.35 in August. Inventories
of durable goods increased $0.3 billion or 0.1% to $383.8 billion, led by machinery.
Nondurable goods inventories decreased $0.5 billion or 0.2% to $237.6 billion,
led by petroleum and coal products. Inventories
of Wood and Paper expanded, respectively, 0.2% and 0.3%.
Click image
for larger view
New
orders increased $1.4 billion or 0.3% to $455.5 billion. Excluding
transportation, new orders rose 0.6% (but -0.3% YoY -- the 22nd month
of year-over-year contractions out of the past 24). Durable goods orders decreased
$0.7 billion or 0.3% to $226.8 billion, led by transportation equipment. New
orders for nondurable goods increased $2.1 billion or 0.9% to $228.7 billion. New
orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft -- a proxy for business
investment spending -- fell by 1.3% (-3.8% YoY). Business investment spending has
contracted on a YoY basis during all but two months since January 2015
(inclusive).
Prior
to July 2014, as can be seen in the graph above, real (inflation-adjusted) new
orders had been essentially flat since early 2012, recouping on average 70% of the
losses incurred since the beginning of the Great Recession. With July 2014’s
transportation-led spike gradually receding in the rearview mirror, the
recovery in new orders is back to just 46% of the ground given up in the Great
Recession.
Click image
for larger view
Unfilled
durable-goods orders decreased $4.3 billion or 0.4% to $1,118.8 billion, led by
transportation equipment. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.69, down
from 6.79 in August. Real unfilled orders, which had been
a good litmus
test for sector growth, show a much different picture; in real terms,
unfilled orders in June 2014 were back to 97% of their December 2008 peak. Real
unfilled orders jumped to 122% of the prior peak in July 2014, thanks to the
largest-ever batch of aircraft orders. Since then, however, real unfilled
orders have moved mostly sideways; not only are they back below the December
2008 peak, but they are also diverging further below the January 2010-to-June
2014 trend-growth line.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely
for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not
constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.