April 2021 Monthly Average Crude Oil Price

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The monthly average U.S.-dollar price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil nudged $0.62 (-1.0%) lower, to $61.72 per barrel in April. That decrease occurred within the context of a marginally weaker U.S. dollar (broad trade-weighted index basis -- goods and services), the lagged impacts of February’s weather-induced drop of 1.15 million barrels-per-day (BPD) in the amount of petroleum products demanded/supplied (to 17.4 million BPD, and a decline in accumulated oil stocks (April average: 492 million barrels).

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From the 3 May 2021 issue of The Energy Bulletin:

Futures prices rose [in April] with much positive economic data and signs of a fuel consumption revival in key economies offsetting a worsening coronavirus crisis elsewhere. Futures in New York rose last week, extending their monthly gain to 7.5%. The near-certain likelihood of higher fuel consumption in the US, China, and the UK has brightened the overall demand outlook, even as a resurgent pandemic in India, Brazil, and Japan cloud those prospects. OPEC and its allies see world consumption rebounding by 6 million b/d this year, while Goldman Sachs says demand could post a record jump as vaccination rates increase.

Despite high vaccination rates in many parts of the world, people appear to be still wary of public transit, opting for personal vehicles. Called "the great car comeback" by Bloomberg, the trend is visible in locations as diverse as Tel Aviv, Moscow, and Bucharest. Car sales in Europe soared by 63 percent last month to 1.39 million, which was high not just compared to the previous year when sales of everything but handwash and toilet paper were subdued.

However, India's worsening COVID outbreak could disturb the nearly balanced global oil market, which will show a surplus of as much as 1.4 million b/d next month amid a sizeable loss of demand from the world's third-largest oil importer. India has seen fuel demand decline in recent weeks as record-high new coronavirus infections prompt lockdowns and curfews in many states in the country of 1.3 billion. India's combined demand for diesel and gasoline is set to drop by as much as 20% in April compared to March.

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Selected highlights from the 30 April 2021 issue of OilPrice.com’s Oil & Energy Insider include:

Shale CEOs stick with restraint, mostly. Ovintiv CEO Doug Suttles told Bloomberg that the industry is maintaining capital discipline. At the same time, Continental Resources said that it would ramp up activity in the Bakken this year.

U.S. Senate rescinds Trump methane rule. The Senate voted to repeal a Trump-era rule that weakened methane regulations. If signed into law as expected, the move will restore Obama-era regulations.

India's covid crisis could lead to a global oil surplus. India’s worsening COVID outbreak is set to disturb the nearly balanced global oil market, which will show a surplus of oil supply of as much as 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) next month amid a sizeable loss of demand from the world’s third-largest oil importer, Rystad Energy says.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.