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Macro Pulse highlights recent activity and events expected to affect the U.S. economy over the next 24 months. While the review is of the entire U.S. economy its particular focus is on developments affecting the Forest Products industry. Everyone with a stake in any level of the sector can benefit from
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Monday, May 17, 2021

March 2021 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

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Softwood lumber exports rose (13 MMBF or +14.1%) in March, and imports jumped (313 MMBF or +27.4%). Exports were 1 MMBF (+1.4%) above year-earlier levels; imports were 90 MMBF (+6.6%) higher. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 89 MMBF (+7.0%) larger. Also, the average net export deficit for the 12 months ending March 2021 was 8.4% larger than the average of the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the graph above).

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North America (57.4%; of which Canada: 35.4%; Mexico: 22.0%), Asia (15.6%; especially China: 4.0%; and Japan: 3.4%), and the Caribbean: 19.6% (especially the Dominican Republic: 4.7%) were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China were -43.3% relative to the same months in 2020. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of most (85.5%) of softwood lumber imports into the United States. Imports from Canada were 10.9% higher YTD than the same months in 2020. Overall, YTD exports were down 9.3% compared to 2020; imports: +12.4%.

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U.S. softwood lumber export activity through the West Coast customs region represented 39.0% of the U.S. total; Gulf: 23.4%, and Eastern: 24.3%. Seattle (23.1% of the U.S. total) was the single most-active district, followed by Mobile (14.1%) and San Diego (12.7%). At the same time, Great Lakes customs region handled 57.9% of softwood lumber imports -- most notably the Duluth, MN district (23.3%) -- coming into the United States. 

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Southern yellow pine comprised 18.2% of all softwood lumber exports; Douglas-fir (15.2%) and treated lumber (13.8%) were also significant. Southern pine exports were down 32.5% YTD relative to 2020, while Doug-fir: +1.3%; and treated: -10.7%.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

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