Sales of new
single-family houses in April 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate
(SAAR) of 863,000 units (957,000 expected).
This is 5.9% (±11.2%)* below the revised March rate of 917,000 units
(previously 1.021 million), but 48.3% (±24.5%) above the April 2020 estimate
of 582,000 units; the not-seasonally adjusted (NSA) year-over-year comparison
(shown in the table above) was +50.0%. For longer-term perspectives, NSA sales
were 37.9% below the “housing bubble” peak but 49.2% above the long-term,
pre-2000 average.
The
median sales price of new houses sold in April jumped ($38,200 or +11.4% MoM)
to $372,400; meanwhile, the average sales price rose to a new record-high $435,400
($34,900 or +8.7% MoM). Starter homes (defined here as those priced below
$200,000) comprised 2.6% of the total sold, down from the year-earlier 11.5%;
prior to the Great Recession starter homes represented as much as 61% of total new-home
sales. Homes priced below $150,000 were 1.3% of sales, down from 1.9% a year
earlier.
* 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
As mentioned in our post about housing permits, starts and completions in April, single-unit completions barely budged by +1,000 units (+0.1%). Because sales fell (54,000 units; -5.9%), inventory for sale rose in absolute (+12,000 units) and months-of-inventory (+0.4 month) terms.
Existing home sales retreated further in April (160,000 units or -2.7%), to a SAAR of 5.85 million units (6.085 million expected). Inventory of existing homes for sale expanded in absolute (90,000 units) and months-of-inventory (0.3 month) terms. Because resales fell on a smaller proportional basis than new-home sales, the share of total sales comprised of new homes slipped to 12.9%. The median price of previously owned homes sold in April advanced to $341.600 ($15,300 or +4.7% MoM).
Housing
affordability gained 2.3 percentage points even though the median price of
existing homes for sale in March rose by $19,400 (+6.20% MoM; +18.4 YoY), to $334,500.
Concurrently, Standard
& Poor’s reported that the U.S. National Index in the S&P Case-Shiller
CoreLogic Home Price indices rose at a not-seasonally adjusted monthly change
of +2.0% (+13.2% YoY).
“More
than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data put these results into
historical context. The National Composite’s 13.2% gain was last exceeded more
than 15 years ago in December 2005, and lies very comfortably in the top decile
of historical performance,” said Craig
Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at
S&P DJI. “The unusual strength is reflected across all 20 cities; March’s
price gains in every city are above that city’s median level, and rank in the
top quartile of all reports in 19 cities.”
“These data are consistent with the hypothesis that Covid has encouraged potential buyers to move from urban apartments to suburban homes,” Lazzara added. “This demand may represent buyers who accelerated purchases that would have happened anyway over the next several years. Alternatively, there may have been a secular change in preferences, leading to a permanent shift in the demand curve for housing.”
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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