Builders
started construction of privately-owned housing units in
November at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,679,000 units (1.563
million expected). This is 11.8% (±15.2%)* above the revised
October estimate of 1,502,000 (originally 1.520 million units) and 8.3% (±14.3%)*
above the November 2020 SAAR of 1,551,000 units; the not-seasonally adjusted
YoY change (shown in the table above) was +9.8%.
Single-family
housing starts in November were at a rate of 1,173,000; this is 11.3% (±15.8%)*
above the revised October figure of 1,054,000 units (-0.2% YoY). Multi-family: 506,000
units (+12.9% MoM; +38.9% YoY).
* 90% confidence interval (CI) is not statistically different from zero. The Census Bureau does not publish CIs for the entire multi-unit category.
Total
completions were at a SAAR of 1,282,000 units.
This is 4.1% (±13.5%)* above the revised October estimate of 1,231,000 (originally
1.242 million units) and 3.1% (±13.6%)* above the November 2020 SAAR of
1,244,000 units; the NSA comparison: +2.3% YoY.
Single-family completions were at a SAAR of 910,000; this is 0.1% (±12.0%)* below the revised October rate of 911,000 units (-1.2% YoY). Multi-family: 372,000 units (+16.3% MoM; +13.2% YoY).
Total
permits were at a SAAR of 1,712,000 units (1.655 million expected). This is 3.6% (±0.9%) above the revised
October rate of 1,653,000 (originally 1.650 million units) and 0.9% (±2.0%)*
above the November 2020 SAAR of 1,696,000 units; the NSA comparison: +6.7% YoY.
Single-family permits were at a SAAR of 1,103,000; this is 2.7% (±1.1%) above the revised October figure of 1,074,000 units (+0.6% YoY). Multi-family: 609,000 units (+5.2% MoM; +17.9% YoY).
Despite
inflation concerns and ongoing production bottlenecks, home builder confidence
edged higher for the fourth consecutive month on strong consumer demand and
limited existing inventory. Builder sentiment in the market for newly built
single-family homes moved one point higher to 84 in December, according to the
NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This ties the highest reading of
the year that was posted in February.
“While
demand remains strong, finding workers, predicting pricing and dealing with
material delays remains a challenge,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck
Fowke. “Policymakers need to work on supply chain improvements and
controlling costly inflation. Addressing lumber tariffs would be a good place
to start.”
“The
most pressing issue for the housing sector remains lack of inventory,” said
NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Building has increased but the industry
faces constraints, namely cost/availability of materials, labor and lots. And
while 2021 single-family starts are expected to end the year 24% higher than
the pre-Covid 2019 level, we expect higher interest rates in 2022 will put a
damper on housing affordability.”
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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