Sales of new
single-family houses in November 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate
(SAAR) of 744,000 units (770,000 expected). This is 12.4% (±17.2%)* above the revised
October rate of 662,000 (originally 745,000 units), but 14.0% (±20.5%)* below
the November 2020 SAAR of 865,000 units; the not-seasonally adjusted (NSA) year-over-year
comparison (shown in the table above) was -13.1%. For longer-term perspectives,
NSA sales were 46.4% below the “housing bubble” peak but 1.4% above the
long-term, pre-2000 average.
The
median sales price of new houses sold in November rose by $8,200 (+2.0%) to a record-high
$416,900; meanwhile, the average sales price also hit a record $481,700 (+$3,500
or +0.7% MoM). Homes priced at/above $750,000 were 11.3% of sales, more than
double the year-earlier 4.9%.
* 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
As mentioned in our post about housing permits, starts and completions in November, single-unit completions edged down by 1,000 units (-0.1%). Sales advanced (82,000 units; +12.4%), with inventory for sale rising in absolute terms (10,000 units) but declining (-0.6 month) in months-of-inventory terms.
Existing home sales jumped in November (120,000 units or +1.9%), to a SAAR of 6.46 million units (6.51 million expected). Inventory of existing homes for sale contracted in absolute (-120,000 units) and months-of-inventory (-0.2 month) terms. Because resales were outpaced by new-home sales, the share of total sales comprised of new homes nudged up to 10.3%. The median price of previously owned homes sold in November rose to $353,900 ($1,200 or +0.3% MoM).
Housing
affordability fell as the median price of existing homes for
sale in October advanced by $2,900 (+0.8% MoM; +13.5 YoY), to $360,800.
Concurrently, Standard
& Poor’s reported that the U.S. National Index in the S&P Case-Shiller
CoreLogic Home Price indices rose at a not-seasonally adjusted monthly change
of +0.8% (+19.1% YoY).
“In
October 2021, U.S. home prices moved substantially higher, but at a
decelerating rate,” said Craig
Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index
rose 19.1% from year-ago levels, and the 10- and 20-City Composites gained 17.1%
and 18.4%, respectively. In all three cases, October’s gains were below
September’s, and September’s gains were below August’s. That said, October’s
19.1% gain in the National Composite is the fourth-highest reading in the 34
years covered by our data. (The top three were the three months immediately
preceding October.)
“We
continue to see very strong growth at the city level. All 20 cities saw price
increases in the year ended October 2021. October’s increase ranked in the top
quintile of historical experience for 19 cities, and in the top decile for 17
of them. As was the case last month, however, in 14 of 20 cities, prices decelerated
– i.e., increased by less in October than they had done in September.
“Phoenix’s
32.3% increase led all cities for the 29th consecutive month. Tampa (+28.1%)
and Miami (+25.7%) continued in second and third place in October, narrowly
edging out Las Vegas, Dallas, and San Diego. Prices were strongest in the South
and Southeast (both +24.4%), but every region continued to log double-digit
gains.
“We have previously suggested that the strength in the U.S. housing market is being driven in part by a change in locational preferences as households react to the COVID pandemic. More data will be required to understand whether this demand surge represents an acceleration of purchases that would have occurred over the next several years, or reflects a more permanent secular change.”
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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